Winter Forecast

U.S. Snow Forecast Comparisons for the Winter of 2011-2012

"People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter," stated AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg.

It appears the long range forecasts from the NOAA, AccuWeather and The farmer's Almanac are in relative agreement that good portions of the U.S. will have a strong winter.

This blog showcases the different forecasts we have been tracking so you can make your own judgments.

Go Snow!

October 18, 2011 - NOAA

The NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Association) has now officially weighed in on the upcoming winter forecast and it looks like some great chances for more snow and they added there is a chance for a "wildcard."

According to Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.” This could bring about another "Snowmageddon."

The "wildcard" is the effects that come about from the Arctic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation is always present and fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009. Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance.

Stormy periods can occur anytime during the winter season. To improve the ability to predict and track winter storms, NOAA implemented a more accurate weather forecast model on Oct.18. Data gathered from the model will support local weather forecast office efforts to prepare for and protect the public from weather events. This service is helping the country to become a Weather-Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

For more on the NOAA forecast, click HERE

October 10, 2011 - AccuWeather.com

The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niña... yet again.

La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast. Monster blizzards virtually shut down the cities of New York and Chicago. Last winter was one of New York City's snowiest on record.

La Niñas often produce a volatile weather pattern for the Midwest and Northeast during winter due to the influence they have on thejet stream. The graphic below shows the position the jet stream typically takes over the U.S. during La Niña.

This graphic illustrates the common position the jet stream takes over the United States during La Niña.

The way the jet stream is expected to be positioned during this winter's La Niña will tend to drive storms through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Last year, the jet stream steered storms farther east along the Northeast coast, hammering the Interstate 95 corridor.

Therefore, instead of New York City enduring the worst of winter this year, it will likely be Chicago.

"The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central U.S.," stated Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.

Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead.

AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."

For more information on this forecast click HERE

For comparison, this is the first forecast we saw this summer:

August 9, 2011 From the blog of Henry Margusity of AccuWeather.com

The basis of the forecast is on the prediction that a weak La Nina will be forming this fall and continuing through the winter. Last year, we had a strong La Nina with blocking over Greenland that lead to a very snowy winter across the Midwest and Northeast. While the pattern will be similar to last year, there will be changes in the pattern that will lead to the heavy snow areas shown on the map.

I am not convinced that blocking will be prevalent across Greenland this winter, however, with the trough axis predicted to be in the Midwest, that will lead to storms developing along the East coast and racing northeast. The cold will be back in the Appalachians, and that will lead to heavy snow in that area. The major cities will probably be fighting many mix precip storms with the snow lovers along the I-95 corridor pulling their hair over heavy snow versus ice and rain.

A storm track coming out of the Rockies will lead to storms moving through the western Great Lakes and a band of above-normal snowfall across the Midwest and western Great Lakes.

While overall, the winter will not be extremely cold for the country, it will be cold enough for ice concerns for areas from Oklahoma to North Carolina. Fronts may have a hard time making progress into the South simply due to this summer's heat dome hanging in across parts of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. The good news for that area, while above-normal temps will continue, we should see storms cutting through the southern Plains that will lead to much needed rainfall after a summer of extreme drought conditions.

For more details on this forecast, Click HERE:

Henry Margusity - AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Marg...

This forecast came to us at the end of August:

Monday, August 29th, 2011

Get Ready for a Wet, Wild Winter in 2012!

by Caleb Weatherbee on

For the last several months, many of you have been emailing us, leaving comments on our articles, and asking us on our Facebookpage, “What’s in store for the coming winter?” Now, at long last, the wait is over! The 2012 Farmers’ Almanac is on shelves, and our much-awaited long-range forecast for the coming year is no longer a secret. Last year, the Farmers’ Almanac predicted that the winter would exhibit a split personality, with harsh conditions for the eastern half of the U.S., and milder weather to the west. That prediction came through, as residents of the Northeast and Great Lakes regions, especially, got pounded with many heavy storms throughout the season.

So what’s in store for the coming winter?

For the winter of 2011–12, the Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting “clime and punishment,” a season of unusually cold and stormy weather. For some parts of the country, that means a frigid climate; while for others, it will mean lots of rain and snow.

The upcoming winter looks to be cold to very cold for the Northern Plains, parts of the Northern Rockies, and the western Great Lakes. In contrast, above-normal temperatures are expected across most of the southern and eastern U.S. Near-normal temperatures are expected in the Midwest and Far West, and in southern
Florida.

A very active storm track will bring much heavier-than-normal precipitation from the Southern Plains through Tennessee into Ohio, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast. Because of above normal temperatures, much of the precipitation will likely be rain or mixed precipitation, although, during February, some potent East Coast storms could leave heavy snow, albeit of a wet and slushy consistency.

2011-12 Winter Forecast

Winter Forecast Overview:
A Cold and Snowy Season Ahead
November 2011 Forecast
Both December’s temperature and snowfall patterns will likely have a classic
La Niña appearance. The coldest temperature anomalies of November
should shift from the mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley northward towards
the Great Lakes and Upper Plains. Regionally, this puts most places
near to slightly below normal for the month.
At this juncture, the overall pattern does not favor major coastal storms in
December. While a surprise cannot be ruled out, the pattern is supportive
of Alberta Clippers and relatively weak inland storms. Despite the lack of
a major storm, it is important to note that December should be a very busy
month with a double-digit number of winter events possible. This should
lead to at least average snowfall for most of New Jersey and coastal New
York, with snowfall rising to well above normal levels further inland into
Pennsylvania, particularly in the higher elevations.
December 2011 Forecast
January probably turns out to the be the coldest month of the season nationally,
with the focus of the cold in the western half of the country. However,
that will be on average. Wild temperature swings are likely during the
month, even well into the upper Plains and northern New England. Early
indications point to a New Years cold outbreak, and one again late in the
month.
The active pattern from December is likely to carry over into much (if not
all) of January. Early on, there is an enhanced risk of mixed precipitation
events. But as the month continues, the storm threat shifts from smaller/
mixed systems to that of a major coastal storm. While odds favor a late
January threat for a significant coastal storm, it would not be surprising if it
held off until early February. If the storm is delayed, the southeastern extent
of the above average snowfall area will need to be shifted northwestward.
January 2012 Forecast
As referenced in the January forecast, there is lingering potential of a major
coastal snow storm in February. The threat should diminish during the
first week to ten days of the month. Thereafter, warmer weather gradually
tries to build in from the south. Meanwhile, the snowy pattern should
slowly ease.
Even though the snowy pattern should relax, snowfall is still poised to
average out above normal for much of northern Pennsylvania eastward
through New York City and Long Island, in part on the strength of the
early month chill. Extreme southern New Jersey and Pennsylvania, however
may struggle to see average snow given their increased exposure to
warm air pushing northward.
February 2012 Forecast
Page 7
WeatherWorks 2011 - 2012 Winter Forecast
Page 8
Overall, the final weeks of winter should feature less snow than normal and
above average temperatures. However, it is important to realize that these
are only six week forecasted averages. It should be noted that many La Niña
seasons feature a few March events, and sometimes even an April surprise.
That could very well be the case in Spring 2012, even though the over arching
pattern might not be the most favorable for a late snowfall.
While the signals are weak at best right now, the most favored time for late
season winter weather appears to be in the middle of March. If this colder
period does in fact come to fruition, it probably would not last for very
long. Furthermore, it would likely necessitate the below average snowfall
areas in the map to the left to be adjusted upward by one, or perhaps even
two categories.